آمار

تعداد نشریات54
تعداد شماره‌ها2,676
تعداد مقالات37,769
تعداد مشاهده مقاله20,825,487
تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله9,782,596
هدایتی, سید شهاب الدین. (1404). تحلیل چالش‌های آینده‌پژوهی توسعه گردشگری مذهبی در ایران بر مبنای برنامهٔ هفتم توسعه (قانون برنامه پنج‌سالهٔ هفتم پیشرفت جمهوری اسلامی ایران (۱۴۰۳ـ ۱۴۰۷)). اسلام و مطالعات اجتماعی, 3(5), 27-64. doi: 10.22081/jtc.2026.73582.1065
سید شهاب الدین هدایتی. "تحلیل چالش‌های آینده‌پژوهی توسعه گردشگری مذهبی در ایران بر مبنای برنامهٔ هفتم توسعه (قانون برنامه پنج‌سالهٔ هفتم پیشرفت جمهوری اسلامی ایران (۱۴۰۳ـ ۱۴۰۷))". اسلام و مطالعات اجتماعی, 3, 5, 1404, 27-64. doi: 10.22081/jtc.2026.73582.1065
هدایتی, سید شهاب الدین. (1404). 'تحلیل چالش‌های آینده‌پژوهی توسعه گردشگری مذهبی در ایران بر مبنای برنامهٔ هفتم توسعه (قانون برنامه پنج‌سالهٔ هفتم پیشرفت جمهوری اسلامی ایران (۱۴۰۳ـ ۱۴۰۷))', اسلام و مطالعات اجتماعی, 3(5), pp. 27-64. doi: 10.22081/jtc.2026.73582.1065
هدایتی, سید شهاب الدین. تحلیل چالش‌های آینده‌پژوهی توسعه گردشگری مذهبی در ایران بر مبنای برنامهٔ هفتم توسعه (قانون برنامه پنج‌سالهٔ هفتم پیشرفت جمهوری اسلامی ایران (۱۴۰۳ـ ۱۴۰۷)). اسلام و مطالعات اجتماعی, 1404; 3(5): 27-64. doi: 10.22081/jtc.2026.73582.1065

تحلیل چالش‌های آینده‌پژوهی توسعه گردشگری مذهبی در ایران بر مبنای برنامهٔ هفتم توسعه (قانون برنامه پنج‌سالهٔ هفتم پیشرفت جمهوری اسلامی ایران (۱۴۰۳ـ ۱۴۰۷))

الهیات شهر
مقاله 2، دوره 3، شماره 5، فروردین 1404، صفحه 27-64    اصل مقاله (764.48 K)
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22081/jtc.2026.73582.1065
نویسنده
سید شهاب الدین هدایتی*
کارشناس ارشد، شهر ابرکوه، استان یزد، ایران
تاریخ دریافت: 06 آذر 1404،  تاریخ بازنگری: 26 آذر 1404،  تاریخ پذیرش: 08 بهمن 1404 
چکیده
هدف از پژوهش پیش‌رو، آینده‌پژوهی راه‌های گسترش گردشگری مذهبی در ایران در جهت فراهم آوردن بستر شناختی و علمی مناسب برای برنامه‌ریزان و سیاست‌گذاران، با اتکا بر دیدگاه‌های نخبگان است. تعداد شرکت‌کنندگان در تحقیق براساس نرم‌افزار دلفی، 15 نفر از خبرگان حوزهٔ مدیریت جهانگردی و سازمان برنامه و بودجه بودند. به منظور اعتبارسنجی و اجماع دربارهٔ چالش‌های بااهمیت، از تحلیل دلفی فازی استفاده شده است. مرحلهٔ دوم با به‌کارگیری روش تحلیل اثرهای متقابل و با استفاده از نرم‌افزار میک‌مک، چالش‌های شناسایی‌شده در مرحله نخست تحلیل ساختاری شدند. یافته‌های تحقیق نشان می‌دهد نبود زیرساخت‌های رفاهی مناسب، مانند بیمهأ زائر، نبود مترجم غیرعربی‌زبان، تضاد فرهنگی گردشگران مذهبی با فرهنگ بومی ـ به‌ویژه در مجموعه‌های تفریحی، ییلاقی و زیرساخت‌های گردشگری شهری ـ و همچنین حمل‌ونقل نامناسب و ناکافی، از جمله تنگناهای موجود هستند که در توسعه نیافتن این نوع گردشگری نقشی مؤثر دارند.
کلیدواژه‌ها
برنامهٔ هفتم توسعه؛ گردشگری مذهبی؛ توسعهٔ گردشگری؛ آینده‌پژوهی
عنوان مقاله [English]
Analyzing the Challenges of Foresight in the Development of Religious Tourism in Iran Based on the Seventh Development Plan
نویسندگان [English]
Seyed Shahabodin Hedayati
M.A. Holder, Abarkooh City, Yazd Province, Iran
چکیده [English]
The purpose of this study is to conduct a foresight analysis of strategies for the development of religious tourism in Iran in order to provide an appropriate cognitive and scientific framework for planners and policymakers, drawing on expert perspectives and in alignment with the Seventh Five-Year Development Plan of the Islamic Republic of Iran (2024–2028). The study participants consisted of 15 experts in tourism management and the Plan and Budget Organization, selected through the Delphi method. To validate and achieve consensus on the most significant challenges, the fuzzy Delphi technique was employed. In the second phase, the identified challenges were structurally analyzed using cross-impact analysis and the MICMAC software. The findings indicate that the lack of adequate welfare infrastructure—such as pilgrim insurance services—the absence of non-Arabic language translators, cultural conflicts between religious tourists and local communities (particularly in recreational, resort, and urban tourism facilities), as well as insufficient and inefficient transportation systems, constitute major constraints that significantly hinder the development of religious tourism in Iran.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
Seventh Development Plan, religious tourism, tourism development, foresight studies
مراجع
  1. Ahmadi, S., Ghasemi, V., & Rezaei, N. (2024). Futures studies in Iranian religious tourism: Barriers and prospects. Journal of Tourism Futures, 10(1), 45–62.
  2. Ali Akbari, Esmaeil; Pourahmad, Ahmad and Jalalabadi, Leila (2018) Identifying the drivers affecting the future status of sustainable tourism in Kerman city with a futures research approach, Quarterly Journal of Tourism and Development, Year 7, Issue 1, (156-178)
  3. Almuhrzi, H., & Alsawafi, A. (2024). Geopolitical impacts on Middle East religious tourism. International Journal of Religious Tourism and Pilgrimage, 12(2), 78–95.
  4. Bishop, P., & Hines, A. (2022). Thinking about the future: Guidelines for strategic foresight. Social Technologies.
  5. Boniface, B. G., & Cooper, C. P. (1991). The geography of travel and tourism. Oxford: Butterworth-Heinemann.
  6. Cohen, E. (1992). Pilgrimage and Tourism: Convergence and Divergence. Annals of Tourism Research, 19(1), 33–50.
  7. Coyle, R. G. (1996). System Dynamics Modelling: A Practical Approach. London: CRC Press.
  8. Eslami, F., Namdar, R., & Hejazi, Y. (2024). Barriers to sustainable religious tourism in Iran. Tourism Management Perspectives, 50, 101212.
  9. General Policies of the Seventh Development Plan (1401). General Policies of the Seventh Five-Year Plan. Research Center of the Islamic Consultative Assembly. Announcement 20/6/1401
  10. Ghaderi, Z., Henderson, J. C., & Firuzjah, M. (2025). Halal tourism in Iran: Opportunities and challenges. Journal of Islamic Marketing, 16(3), 567–584.
  11. Ghoochani, O. M., Ghanian, M., & Khajehpour, H. (2025). Youth and religious tourism in post-pandemic Iran. International Journal of Religious Tourism and Pilgrimage, 13(1), 45–60.
  12. Grand View Research. (2024). Asia Pacific Luxury Travel Market Size, Share & Trends Analysis Report, 2024–2030. San Francisco: Grand View Research.
  13. Hedayati, Seyed Shahabodin. (2023). "Future study of ways to expand tourism in Iran based on the Seventh Development Plan". Master's thesis. Payam Noor University of Karaj.
  14. Heydari Chianeh, R., Del Chiappa, G., & Ghasemi, V. (2020). Cultural and religious tourism development in Iran: Prospects and challenges. In Tourism in Iran: Challenges, development and issues (pp. 123-140). Routledge.
  15. Inayatullah, S., & Sweeney, J. (2023). Alternative futures for global tourism. Tamkang University Press.
  16. Johnson, B. R., & Christensen, L. B. (2007). Educational Research: Quantitative, Qualitative, and Mixed Approaches. Los Angeles, CA: SAGE.
  17. Kelly, D. M., & Fairley, S. (2018). What about the event? How do tourism leveraging strategies affect small-scale events? Tourism Management, 64, 335–345.
  18. Khazaee-Pool, A., & Ebrahimi, S. (2022). Evaluation of tourism policies in Iran’s development plans. Journal of Iranian Public Administration Studies, 5(1), 45–67. (In Persian)
  19. Khodadadi, M. (2020). Stigmatisation of a tourism destination: A rhetorical analysis of the image of Iran within The Guardian (2012–2019). Tourism Management Perspectives, 34, 100641.
  20. Kiamehr, Gholamreza (2016). Studying the share of foreign exchange income from tourism in Iran compared to the world. Journal of Tourism Economics, 10(4), 33-50.
  21. Maxwell, J. A. (2013). Qualitative Research Design: An Interactive Approach (3rd ed.). Thousand Oaks, CA: SAGE Publications.
  22. Mehrali Tabar-Firozjaei, Morteza, and Gara'inejad, Gholamreza. (1401). Meta-analysis of studies of seventy years of development planning, for application in the regulation of the compilation of the Seventh Development Plan. Program and Development Research, 3(9).
  23. Mehr News Agency. (1403). Strengthening sports tourism in government development programs. https://www.mehrnews.com/news/6147890/
  24. Middleton, V. T. C. (1998). Marketing in travel and tourism (3rd ed.). Oxford: Butterworth-Heinemann.
  25. Ministry of Cultural Heritage, Tourism and Handicrafts. (2022). Report on Travel and Visa Facilitation Policies in Religious Tourism Destinations in Iran. Tehran: Tourism Planning and Development Office.
  26. Ministry of Cultural Heritage, Tourism and Handicrafts. (1401). Report on travel and visa facilitation policies in destinations.
  27. Mirjalili, S. (2011). Cultural developments and their impact on Iranian tourism policies after the Islamic Revolution. Journal of Cultural Studies, 7(1), 55-78.
  28. Mirzaei, R., Nazari, M., & Seyfi, S. (2024). Post-war recovery of religious tourism in Iran. Journal of Islamic Tourism, 6(2), 112–130.
  29. Momeni, E., & Hosseini Ragheb, S. M. (2023). Ethical challenges in religious tourism in Iran. Quarterly Scientific Journal of Applied Ethics Studies, 19(2), 139–167.
  30. Morrison, A. M. (2013). Marketing and Managing Tourism Destinations. Routledge.
  31. Naimi Majd, Mahboobeh; Naimi Majd, Arezoo (2019) Futures Studies of Sustainable Tourism, a New Approach in the Resistance Economy (Case Study: Tourism and Hotel Industry Experts), Journal of Futures Studies in Management, No. 116, (201 - 212)
  32. Nekoei, Zahra; Zargham Borujeni, Hamid; Khoshkho, Mohammad Hossein (2019). Investigating the relationship between globalization and tourism development (case study: Tehran). Quarterly Journal of National Studies, 41, Year 11, Issue 1.
  33. (2022). Tourism Trends and Policies 2022. Paris: OECD Publishing.
  34. Ranjbar Dastani, A., et al. (2020). Religious tourism potentials in Iran. Journal of Tourism Planning and Development, 9(33), 89–110. (In Persian)
  35. Ranjbar Dastani, M., Ziaee, M., & Hosseini, S. H. (2020). Religious tourism development and cultural sustainability in Iran. Journal of Tourism Planning and Development, 9(4), 45–62.
  36. Rasanah Institute. (2024). Iran’s seventh national development plan: Limitations and challenges. International Institute for Iranian Studies. https://rasanah-iiis.org/english/monitoring-and-translation/reports/irans-seventh-national-development-plan-limitations-and-challenges/
  37. Rasoolimanesh, S. M., et al. (2024). Digital transformation in religious tourism. Current Issues in Tourism, 27(5), 789–805.
  38. Rezaei, N., & Kazemi, M. (2023). Futures studies in Iranian tourism policy. Futures, 149, 103145.
  39. Ruiz-Muñoz, D., Sánchez-Sánchez, A. M., & Sánchez-Sánchez, F. J. (2025). Challenges and opportunities for halal tourism. Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research. Advance online publication.
  40. Ryan, C. (1991). Recreational tourism: A social science perspective. London: Routledge
  41. Seyfi, S., & Hall, C. M. (2020). Understanding tourism in Iran through the medical gaze: A perspective from the Iranian diaspora. Tourism Recreation Research, 45(3), 327-341.
  42. Sharpely,Richard and David Telfer(2020);Tourism and Development:Concepts and Issues. Sydney:Channel View Publication.
  43. Shafia, Saeed., and Talaei Shokri, Shahab. (1402). Analytical study of the strategic document for tourism development: adaptation to upstream documents and experts' views. Quarterly Journal of Tourism and Development, 12(3), 77-98.
  44. Tehran Times. (2025, November 22). 5 million religious tourists visited Iran last year. https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/520731/3-5-million-religious-tourists-visited-Iran-last-year
  45. Tehran Times. (2025a, October 19). Iran seeks to attract more visitors from neighboring countries. Tehran Times. https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/519301
  46. Tehran Times. (2025b, November 22). 3.5 million religious tourists visited Iran last year. Tehran Times. https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/520731
  47. The Business Research Company. (2025). Religious tourism global market report 2025. The Business Research Company.
  48. Travel & Tourism Development Index. (2025). World Economic Forum: Travel & Tourism Development Index 2025. Retrieved from https://www.weforum.org/publications/travel-tourism-development-index-2025/.
  49. Travel and Tour World. (2025a, October 23). Iran tourism growth in this year. Travel and Tour World. https://www.travelandtourworld.com/news/article/iran-tourism-growth-in-this-year-witness-more-than-three-and-a-half-million-foreign-visitors-to-boost-its-health-leisure-and-religious-tourism/
  50. UNWTO (2021a). International Tourism Highlights, 2021 World Tourism Organization.
  51. (2021b). Visa Facilitation for Tourists: Recovery and Growth of Tourism. Madrid: World Tourism Organization.
  52. (2023a). International tourism and religious travel: Recovery tracker. United Nations World Tourism Organization.
  53. (2023b). World tourism barometer, May 2023. United Nations World Tourism Organization. https://doi.org/10.18111/wtobarometereng.2023.21.1.2
  54. (2023c). Religious Tourism and Pilgrimage: Trends, Impacts and Policy Implications. Madrid: World Tourism Organization.
  55. (2024). World tourism barometer, May 2024. United Nations World Tourism Organization.
  56. Zarandian, Neda (1401) Review of the performance of the law of the sixth five-year plan for the economic, social and cultural development of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the law of permanent provisions of the country's development programs in the field of tourism, cultural heritage and handicrafts, serial number 18090, (Research Center of the Islamic Consultative Assembly).
  57. Ziaee, M., Mahmoud, A., & Somayeh, A. (2020). Islamic pilgrimage tourism in Iran: Challenges and perspectives. In Handbook of halal tourism (pp. 67–85). Routledge.
آمار
تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 184
تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 143


سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی. قدرت گرفته از سیناوب