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سنجش مشارکت سیاسی، ثبات و امنیت اجتماعی در ایران 1404-1396 | ||
| علوم سیاسی | ||
| مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده، انتشار آنلاین از تاریخ 03 آبان 1405 | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22081/psq.2026.75069.3141 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| علی طالبی بجندی1؛ ابراهیم متقی* 2 | ||
| 1دانشجوی دکتری علوم سیاسی، پردیس ارس دانشگاه تهران، ارس، ایران. | ||
| 2استاد تمام، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران | ||
| تاریخ دریافت: 22 خرداد 1405، تاریخ بازنگری: 08 شهریور 1405، تاریخ پذیرش: 03 آبان 1405 | ||
| چکیده | ||
| نظریه‌پردازان توسعه و نوسازی همواره به این موضوع توجه و اشاره داشته‌اند که «جوامع در حال گذار» عموماً دستخوش بحران سیاسی، اجتماعی و دگرگونی‌های ساختاری می‌شود. علت اصلی شکل‌گیری چنین فرآیندی را می‌توان در تغییر قالب‌های ادراکی و انتظارات فزایندة گروه‌های اجتماعی دانست. تجربه نشان داده که واحدهای سیاسی در دو مرحلة تاریخی ممکن است درگیر بحران‌های اجتماعی و چالش‌های امنیتی شوند. مرحلة اول مربوط به دورانی است که زمینه برای «گذار از جامعة سنتی» به وجود می‌آید. در چنین شرایطی، نشانه‌هایی از جابجایی انتظارات، قالب‌های ارزشی و الگوهای کنش ارتباطی شکل می‌گیرد. در مرحلة دوم، اعتراضات سیاسی، واکنشی نسبت به انتظارات اجتماعی تأمین نشده خواهد بود. ایران در سال‌های دهة 1370 به بعد با نشانه‌هایی از بحران‌های اجتماعی روبرو شده که مبنای شکل‌گیری آن را می‌توان در سازوکارهای گذار از جامعة سنتی دانست. در این شرایط نشانه‌هایی از بحران توزیع، بحران مشارکت، بحران مشروعیت و بحران هویت ایجاد می‌شود. هر یک از بحران‌های یاد شده نقش مؤثر و تعیین‌کننده‌ای در ظهور بحران‌های اجتماعی و اقتصادی ایران سال‌های 88-1371 داشته است. بحران‌های اجتماعی ایران در سال‌های یاد شده عموماً ناشی از نشانه‌های «توزیع نامتوازن اقتصادی» و «کنترل مشارکت سیاسی» گروه‌های شهروندی بوده است. در سال‌های 1404-1396 شکل دیگری از بحران‌های اجتماعی و اقتصادی ظهور یافته که ناشی از رکود اقتصادی، تحریم‌های گستردة بین‌المللی، محدودیت‌های اعمال شده در سیاست داخلی و عدم انعطاف‌پذیری ساخت حکومتی در برابر انتظارات اجتماعی بوده است. در این دوران جامعة شبکه‌ای وجه مسلط کنش ارتباطی و انتقال آگاهی برای گروه‌های شهروندی بوده است. چگونگی پیوند انتظارات اجتماعی برآورده نشده، تضادهای طبقاتی و انباشت انتظارات را می‌توان عامل اساسی بحران‌های 1404-1396 دانست. پرسش اصلی مقاله آن است که «بحران‌های اجتماعی ایران سال‌های 1404-1396 دارای چه نشانه‌های اجتماعی، اقتصادی و امنیتی بوده و عبور از این بحران‌ها نیازمند چه سازوکار و الگوی کنش بوروکراتیک می‌باشد؟» فرضیة مقاله به این موضوع اشاره دارد که «بحران‌های اجتماعی ایران 1404-1396 ریشه در تحولات تکنولوژیک، جامعة شبکه‌ای، اثرگذاری رسانه‌های بین‌المللی، نادیده گرفتن انتظارات اجتماعی، کنترل مشارکت اجتماعی و شوک درمانی در حوزة اقتصادی دارد» | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| واژگان کلیدی: ثبات سیاسی؛ ناآرامی‌های اجتماعی؛ کارآمدی ساختاری؛ شوک‌درمانی؛ جامعه شبکه‌ای | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| سنجش مشارکت سیاسی، ثبات و امنیت اجتماعی در ایران 1404-1396 | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| ali talebi bejandi1؛ ebrhaim mottaghi2 | ||
| 1PhD student in Political Science, Aras Campus, University of Tehran, Aras, Iran. | ||
| 2Full Professor, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Development and modernization theorists have always emphasized that societies in transition, especially in the process of moving from a traditional to a modern order, usually face multi-layered political, social, economic, and even security crises. These crises often emerge not suddenly, but as a result of gradual changes in perceptual structures, collective expectations, power relations, and patterns of social action. In such societies, the transformation in the value system and the expansion of social consciousness increase the level of demands of different groups; but if political and administrative institutions cannot adapt to these changes, the gap between “expectation” and “realization” gradually becomes the main source of instability. From this perspective, historical experience shows that political units may become involved in social crises and security challenges in two major stages. The first stage is when the grounds for transition from a traditional society are prepared; That is, a period in which signs of change in mental patterns, lifestyles, communication relationships, and value orientations appear. At this stage, society does not yet have the institutional capacity necessary to respond to emerging demands, and for this reason, tension between traditional and modern forces increases. The second stage is when these accumulated and unmet expectations are revealed in the form of social protests, political dissatisfaction, public distrust, and sometimes protest actions. In fact, political protest in such circumstances is a response to the failure to fulfill economic, social, and cultural demands. Iran has also faced signs of social and structural crises since the 1990s, the roots of which can be found in the mechanisms of transition from traditional society, changes in public expectations, and the inability of some institutions to absorb and manage emerging demands. During this period, Iranian society gradually entered a stage in which issues such as the distribution crisis, the participation crisis, the legitimacy crisis, and the identity crisis became more prominent. The distribution crisis refers to inequality in access to economic resources and opportunities; a crisis that causes parts of society to see themselves deprived of the benefits of development. The participation crisis also occurs when social groups feel excluded from the decision-making process and influence on their political destiny. The legitimacy crisis results from the weakening of public trust in the efficiency, justice, and acceptability of the ruling structures. Finally, the identity crisis is formed when individuals and groups experience hesitation and rupture in defining their place in the existing social order. Together, these crises have laid the groundwork for the formation of social unrest and tensions in Iran during the years 1371 to 1388. During this period, a significant part of the dissatisfaction stemmed, on the one hand, from the uneven distribution of wealth and economic opportunities, and, on the other hand, from the limitation or control of political participation of various citizen groups. In other words, the greater the gap between social demands and institutional responses, the greater the possibility of protest and instability. Therefore, the social crises of this period cannot be considered solely the result of economic or political factors, but rather they must be analyzed as the result of the simultaneous interaction of inefficient structures, social inequalities, and weaknesses in the channels of transmission of demands. In the next stage, namely in the years 1396 to 1404, another type of social and economic crisis took shape in Iran, which was more complex and interconnected in nature. These crises emerged in a context of economic recession, reduced household livelihoods, intensified international sanctions, domestic policy constraints, and a lack of flexibility of the government structure in the face of social changes. During this period, the networked society became the most important platform for communication, organizing demands, spreading awareness, and shaping public opinion. Digital media, social networks, and new communication tools enabled the rapid transfer of information and the synergy of dissatisfaction; in such a way that economic and social crises appeared not at a local and scattered level, but in the form of widespread and simultaneous waves. In this context, the link between unmet social expectations, class conflicts, feelings of discrimination, and the accumulation of unanswered demands is considered the main factor in the intensification of the crises of this period. When broad segments of society feel that formal avenues for reform, being heard, and effective participation are limited, the possibility of the crisis shifting from the economic to the social and from the social to the security level increases. Therefore, the unrest of 1396-1404 must be analyzed within a framework in which the economy, politics, media, and governance structure all play a role in shaping the crisis. The main question of this article is what social, economic, and security characteristics did the social crises in Iran in 1396-1404 have, and what mechanisms and patterns of bureaucratic action are required to overcome these crises? The article's hypothesis is based on the fact that Iran's social crises during this period have their roots in a set of synergistic factors: technological developments and the expansion of the network society, the influence of transnational media, ignoring or delaying the response to social expectations, limiting social and political participation, and the implementation of economic policies based on shock therapy that have been applied without sufficient supportive and institutional support. In such circumstances, reform policies, if they lack a connection with social realities, not only will they not lead to a reduction in the crisis, but they can also deepen it. In the theoretical framework of this article, Huntington's bureaucratic institutionalism approach and James Coleman's perspective on enhancing the capacity of political and social institutions are used. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Political Stability, Social Unrest, Structural Efficiency, Shock Therapy, Network Society | ||
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